Objective • To explore the correlation patterns of the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in various provincial administrative regions in China at the early stage of the epidemic, and forecast the following development of epidemic situation . Methods • The data on the COVID-19 epidemic situation in various provincial administrative regions in China published by National Health Commission of People's Republic of China from Jan. 13 to Feb. 13, 2020, were retrospectively analyzed . The elbow cluster analysis method was used to cluster the provincial administrative regions . The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model was used to calculate the basic infection number (R0) of different clusters, whose changing trends were also predicted . Results • According to the prevalence rates, the 34 provincial administrative regions were divided into four types of clusters: Cluster Ⅰ (22 provincial administrative regions), Cluster Ⅱ (9 provincial administrative regions), Cluster Ⅲ (2 provincial administrative regions) and Cluster Ⅳ (Hubei). The prevalence rate of Hubei was higher than those of other clusters (P=0.000), but the differences in the cure rate and the case-fatality rate among the four clusters were not statistically significant; the R0 values based on the SEIR model of them were 2.764 , 3.056 , 3.899 and 3.984, respectively . By Feb. 13 , 2020, except for Hubei, the cumulative prevalence curves of the other clusters tended to be stable and the cure rates increased . The prevalence rate and case-fatality rate of Hubei were still higher, and the cure rate was lower . Conclusion • From Jan. 13 to Feb. 13 , 2020, 34 provincial administrative regions in China can be divided into four clusters according to the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the prevalence rate of Cluster Ⅳ was significantly higher than those of other three clusters; by Feb. 13 , 2020, the epidemic situations in the Cluster Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ has been alleviated, and the epidemic situation in Cluster Ⅳ areas were still severe.