OBJECTIVE: To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds. METHODS: Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories. RESULTS: The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020. CONCLUSION: The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.