Authors: Shade J. K., Doshi A. N., Sung E., Popescu D. M., Minhas A. S., Gilotra N. A., Aronis K. N., Hays A. G., Trayanova N. A. Published on:
05 Jan 2021
Publication:- DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.03.21249182
Cardiovascular (CV) manifestations of COVID-19 infection carry significant morbidity and mortality. Current risk prediction for CV complications in COVID-19 is limited and existing approaches fail to account for the dynamic course of the disease. Here, we develop and validate the COVID-HEART predictor, a novel continuously-updating risk prediction technology to forecast CV complications in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The risk predictor is trained and tested with retrospective registry data from 2178 patients to predict two outcomes: cardiac arrest and imaging-confirmed thromboembolic events. In validating the model, we show that it predicts cardiac arrest with a median early warning time of 14 hours and an AUROC of 0.93, and thromboembolic events with a median early warning time of 168 hours and an AUROC of 0.85. The COVID-HEART predictor is anticipated to provide tangible clinical decision support in triaging patients and optimizing resource utilization, with its clinical utility potentially extending well beyond COVID-19.
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MedRxiv: gq7wefnw
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article_id: 565373
More Info | #565373: COVID-HEART: Development and Validation of a Multi-Variable Model for Real-Time Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19
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