Aim: The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency . Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J & K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region . Subject and methods: We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak .
Results: Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote . Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization . The estimated R0 for the J & K region was 1.041; but by decreasing the RO by 10 , 25, and 50%, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, especially by decreasing by 50% . Conclusion: In this study, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, such as lockdown and social distancing, taken in the J & K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases.