Journal of alternative and complementary medicine (New York, N.Y.);
To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of ginkgolide plus aspirin compared with placebo plus aspirin treatment of ischemic stroke.
Stroke is the leading cause of death and long-term disability in China, with high incidence, high mortality, and heavy disease burden. In addition to Western medicines, Chinese clinical guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of acute ischemic stroke recommend application of Chinese patent medicines. Ginkgolide injection is commonly used in the clinical treatment of stroke in China to promote blood circulation and remove blood stasis. The economy of ginkgolide injection needs to be evaluated.
A Markov model was constructed consisting of four disease states: no significant disability, disability, stroke recurrence, and death. Therapeutic data were taken from the Ginkgolide in Ischemic Stroke Patients with Large Artery Atherosclerosis (GISAA) study. Utilities and transition probabilities were extracted from the literature. Cost data were obtained from the China Health Statistics Yearbook and hospital record survey. Expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 13 years of cycles (calculated by average age of subjects and Chinese life expectancy) were calculated through TreeAge Pro11 software. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set as the Chinese per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019, CN¥70,892/QALY. The results were analyzed by single factor and probability sensitivity analyses.
Ginkgolide plus aspirin had a higher expected per-patient cost than placebo plus aspirin but a higher QALYs. Compared with placebo plus aspirin, ginkgolide plus aspirin produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CN¥14,866.06/QALY, which is below the WTP threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested the acceptability of ginkgolide plus aspirin was higher than that of placebo plus aspirin.
The present cost-effectiveness analysis showed that addition of ginkgolides to conventional treatment is cost-effective at a threshold the Chinese per capita GDP.